Ch9: future views

The future of science has been considered by a number of writers in recent years, from many different viewpoints.

  • Continued growth in science, in 9 baseline developing nations
    [http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0151328]
    Between 1993 and 2009, the total world investment on R&D grew from approximately $452 to $1,276.9 billions; an average growth of 6.7% each year (current Purchasing Power Parity—PPP values). In the same period, our baseline group of developing nations grew in absolute terms at almost double that rate (12.4%) almost tripling their level of expenses during this period. This increase is even larger in China, Turkey and Mexico, which increased their R&D investment at an average rate of 18.8%, 12.6% and 10.6%, respectively; these increments contrast especially with the US and the EU15, who had their expenditure growing much less (5.7% and 5.2%, respectively).
    A similar perspective exists for outputs. World scientific output, measured as the number of publications in the Web of Science, grew 4.2% each year, going from 682,064 in 1996 to 1,164,000 papers in 2009. In the same period, the baseline group once again grew at more than three times that rate (13%). China and Turkey grew at a higher rate than the world (17% and 16% respectively), while the EU15 grew at almost the world pace (3.5%) and the US and the Russian Federation had lower rates (2.3% and 0.2%, respectively).
  • Patenting trends
    We can look at filing of patents has changed in the recent decades, to get some measure of technological advances. This is a very blunt measure as frequently patents are about defending a companies space by extending small variants, however their significant costs to maintain do mean that serious thought is given as to if they are really useful.
    In the USA, patent filings have increased strongly since 2009 [http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind14/index.cfm/chapter-5/c5h.htm#s4], and across the world, this is also the case [http://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_941_2015.pdf]. In the UK, patent filings have steadily dropped by a third since the early 2000s, though this may reflect the growing trend to file in the EU patent office.

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