- Number of papers
The numbers of papers published are growing rapidly, as are the number of science journals. A study a few years ago in Issues of Science and Technology (Caroline Wagner, 2011) shows a basic dataset that exemplifies how this has been changing, comparing countries:(the data splits multiple authors fractionally between different countries).
Most clearly apparent is the rise of China, while other mature nations still increase strongly their outputs.
- The number of papers published in the journals Nature and Science though increases only slowly over time, with the largest increase in the 1960s, followed by a reduction back to around 1000/year to maintain the highest competition.
[data counts number of articles in each journal per year]
- That this is exponential growth is clear from looking over a longer timeline on a log scale:
(from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909426/ which has a good discussion about the problems of counting properly).
- I like the motivation behind the idea of giving each new academic scientist a lifetime quota of some number of published printed journal pages. They can either use these pages or sell/trade them to more productive researchers (who because they are more successful will have the funds to pay for them). A market in delivering outputs and impacts could force science to consider this as a limited resource, then competing for attention of others.
- The amount of time scientists spend reading each journal paper has decreased over time:
(from Science 2009, http://people.ischool.illinois.edu/~renear/norobots/StrategicReadingSCI09.pdf).
- There is some evidence that interdisciplinarity makes impacts slower and smaller, though it is unclear if this is a problem of visibility or of quality.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0908/0908.1776.pdf: as the science output becomes more interdisclinary, the paper is less likely to have impact.
http://www.cwts.nl/TvR/documents/AvR-Citation-delay-Scientometrics.pdf: citations to interdisciplinary papers take longer to rise.